Conference Program
 
RISK ANALYSIS SUMMER SCHOOL

August 3-15, 2003
Roger Williams University
Bristol, RI

Chair:
Daniel M. Byrd

Vice Chair:
Charles Yoe

Organizing Committee:

Alwynelle Ahl
C. Richard Cothern
Louis Anthony Cox
Janice Longstreth
Ana T. Maturam
Berhanu Tameru
James D Wilson

Risk analysis is the process of assessing, managing and communicating risks. It is an established profession with books about the subject, several journals focused on it, and learned societies devoted to it. Because of the ubiquitous nature of risk, risk analysis is inherently an interdisciplinary subject with many content-specific applications in engineering, finance, health, transportation, and so forth.

Yet, only a few graduate schools (e.g., Princeton, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Texas at Austin) even have course coverage of risk analysis. Even fewer have academic programs that focus on risk-related subjects and offer graduate degrees in risk analysis or closely aligned disciplines (e.g., Carnegie Mellon University). In addition, several commercial and governmental courses in risk analysis exist, but they almost universally take a narrow, content-specific view of risk analysis in some area of application, such as solid waste sites or agriculture. Because these courses offer useful, but practice-specific education, they often represent organizational policies as risk analysis, frustrating students who seek more fundamental and flexible understanding. Further, professionals in many fields learn risk analysis on the job. Their experience also is limited to practices that are specific to applications of risk analysis. In addition, their opportunities to learn often meld organizational policies with the theoretical underpinnings of risk analysis. They often have no opportunity to extend their understanding and to obtain a more comprehensive view of risk analysis.

To fill the needs of graduate students (or recent graduates) and of professionals with some practical experience, the Organizing Committee wants to present a course that separates content-specific information from the underlying theory and that contrasts case studies drawn from different areas of application. To achieve this objective, the Organizing Committee proposes a syllabus that essentially mixes two kinds of lectures: approximately thirty (30) lectures that cover the basic principles of risk analysis, and approximately twenty (20) lectures that address advanced topics in more detail.

We will base the lectures about basic principles primarily on a recent textbook, Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making. (ISBN 0-86587-696-7) Government Institutes, Rockville, MD, pp. 433 (2000). The Organizing Committee plans to distribute a copy of this text to each student and will jointly administer lectures that cover the basic principles in this text. Each member of the Organizing Committee will give lectures about advanced topics in their sphere of expertise.


SUNDAY WEEK 1
2:00 pm - 9:00 pmArrival and Check-in
6:00 pmDinner
7:30 pm - 9:30 pmEvening Session
Yoe - Structure of risk analysis
MONDAY WEEK 1
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Yoe and Wilson - Orientation to computer labs
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Coffee Break
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Note: Two computer labs run concurrently, each has a different focus. The professors Tamerus teach Computational Epidemiology. Professors Yoes and Price teach Probabilistic Risk. Both labs will be taken by the attendees.
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Stanley - Econophysics
TUESDAY WEEK 1
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
M. Powell - AAAS risk fellowship program
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Coffee Break
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Note: Two computer labs run concurrently, each has a different focus. The professors Tamerus teach Computational Epidemiology. Professors Yoes and Price teach Probabilistic Risk. Both labs will be taken by the attendees.
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
M. Powell - Biological stressors
WEDNESDAY WEEK 1
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Cothern - Probability
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Coffee Break
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Note: Two computer labs run concurrently, each has a different focus. The professors Tamerus teach Computational Epidemiology. Professors Yoes and Price teach Probabilistic Risk. Both labs will be taken by the attendees.
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Byrd - History of risk analysis
THURSDAY WEEK 1
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Wilson - U.S. Risk Policies [the Red Book]
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Coffee Break
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Computer labs: Yoe or Tamerus
Note: Two computer labs run concurrently, each has a different focus. The professors Tamerus teach Computational Epidemiology. Professors Yoes and Price teach Probabilistic Risk. Both labs will be taken by the attendees.
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Price - Exposure assessment
FRIDAY WEEK 1
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Linkov - Uncertainty
Wilson - Dose-response assessmen
Coffee Break
Price - Forecasting
Wilson - Risk characterization [the Orange Book]
12:30 pmLunch

WEEK 1 ENDS; RECESS UNITL SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WEEK 2

SUNDAY WEEK 2
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
D. Powell - Agricultural risk analysis
MONDAY WEEK 2
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
D. Powell - Risk Communication (FSnet & AgNet)
Longstreth - Outcomes
Coffee Break
Longstreth - Natural disasters and technological risks
Cox - Uncertainty & Bayes theorem
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Cox -Fundamentals & Models
TUESDAY WEEK 2
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Cox - Chemical risk assessment
Longstreth - Geodispersed risks & ozone depletion
Coffee Break
Cox - Risk management
Wilson - Decision analysis
Poster session - SRA Law & Risk Section - Wilson/Tumeo
12:30 pmLunch
Poster session - SRA Law & Risk Section - Wilson/Tumeo
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Cothern - Arsenic, electromagnetic force and indoor air pollution
WEDNESDAY WEEK 2
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Tumeo - AAAS Congressional fellows
Wilson - Risk perception
Coffee Break
Cothern - Risk communication
Tumeo - American jurisprudence
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Tumeo - Case law about risk
THURSDAY WEEK 2
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
Byrd - Ethics of risk management
Longstreth - West Nile virus
Coffee Break
Cothern - Radiation risk assessment
Dukelow - Risk Communication - RiskAnal
12:30 pmLunch
6:00 pmDinner
7:15 pm - 10:15 pmEvening Session
Dukelow - Global Climate Change
FRIDAY WEEK 2
7:30 am - 8:30 amBreakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pmMorning Session
TBA
Byrd - What isn't risk analysis?
Coffee Break
Cothern - Course summary

Last Updated: May 4, 2006